Global LNG trade will increase to a base-case 450 million tonnes/year by 2030, from roughly 300 million tpy currently, according to Accenture Strategy. The company’s high-case projections approach 700 million tpy. Western Europe, China, and India will be on the receiving end of the bulk of this increase.

Manas Satapathy, Accenture’s managing director-energy, told the World Gas Conference that enough short-term sales volume (spot or contracts 4 years or shorter) will be available to meet this demand growth, with much of the new supply coming from the US. The bottleneck, according to Satapathy, will shift to the last mile of the LNG chain: regasification terminals and outbound pipelines. With few companies integrated to take advantage of clearing this constraint point, it also marks the segment of the industry with the greatest potential investment upside.

For example, Petronet LNG’s 5 million-tpy terminal at Kochi, Kerala, India, is designed to receive LNG vessels of 65,000-216,000 cu m and has two 155,000-cu m full containment above ground storage tanks. But the terminal, commissioned August 2013, is only operating at 3-5% of capacity, according to Satapathy. Plans are in place to increase capacity utilization to 40% to address growing unmet nonpower-generation demand in the region.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone’s 5 million-tpy Dharma LNG terminal in Odisha on India’s east coast will enter service in 2020-21, according to Satapathy, serving a similar purpose in its region. Dharma’s capacity can be expanded to 10 million tpy. It will be built with reloading capabilities to serve nearby markets such as Myanmar and Bangladesh. 

Fonte: Oil & Gas Journal (Washington DC, June 28/2018)